Author: reidstandish

The Trump and Putin show has come and gone from Helsinki, but the fallout from that surreal meeting in Finland is just starting now. I have a new piece out in the The Atlantic about what it was like to be in that press conference between with the two presidents and it means for the new era that we’re entering into now:

“During the press conference, it was clear that Putin was in charge. Not only did he deny any Russian interference in U.S. politics, he confidently twisted the truth and trolled the American press corps in his answers. Putin, who has been essentially running Russia for 18 years, has managed to silence and intimidate the Russian press with methods ranging from commercial to violent, and next to him Trump’s own repeated cries of “fake news” against critical coverage looked almost quaint. It was a press conference hosted by a man who has eviscerated press freedom at home and one who, if his rhetoric is any indication, seems to want to but can’t quite manage it. And for 45 minutes they both had to deal with the media—and the media with them.”

You can read the entire article here: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/trump-putin-cable-news-carnival/565400/

Good morning/good afternoon/good evening to everyone. Welcome back! And if you’re new to this newsletter, pleasure to have you. As always, send me any feedback or tips by email or tweet (@ReidStan). Also, don’t forget to share this newsletter with anyone you think might be interested. New people can subscribe by clicking this link and entering their email here –> (tinyletter.com/ReidStandish).

MY LATEST

It was a wild few weeks in the lead up to this meeting and an even crazier few days during the main event, which meant I wasn’t able to send out one of these on Monday or Tuesday. So, here’s a little bit of catch up:

1) I was on BBC world service both before and after the press conference on Monday. You can listen to my sleep-deprived take right after getting out of the ballroom of the presidential palace here. (https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w172w60twkz8n0n)

2) Here is my curtain-raiser on the day before the summit for The Atlantic, looking at how the meeting has been set up as a “historic, yet potentially hollow event.” (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/07/helsinki-summit-trump-putin/565220/)

3) I did this article right after the meeting was officially announced. It’s a look at Finland’s long history of holding summits of this stature and what this latest one meant for the Finns. (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/finland-helsinki-russia-trump-united-states-summit/564074/).

4) Finally, here’s a piece in advance of the summit for POLITICO Europe trying to capture the mood of Helsinki as it prepared to welcome two of the most controversial men in the world. (https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-helsinki-summit/)

WHAT I’M READING

1) Trump was in damage control almost immediately upon leaving Helsinki and last night he tried to walk back some of what he said, but then also weirdly doubled-down on everything he had said before. It was vintage Trump. Now he’s trying to talk up his meeting with Putin and telling people to expect “big results.” The Helsinki summit was mostly for show, it was about optics and ego and I can’t imagine that it will be easy for Trump to actually offer much besides leeway. For Putin, he must be thinking after Helsinki that the handcuffs are off, and to be honest, he’s probably right. (https://in.reuters.com/article/usa-russia-summit-trump/trump-says-big-results-will-come-with-putin-idINKBN1K8150)

2) Trump went on Tucker Carlson last night and decided to undermine NATO again by doubting the value of Article 5, the provision of the alliance that says that an attack on one country is an attack on all of them. He specifically went after new member Montenegro: “Membership in NATO obligates the members to defend any other member that’s attacked. So let’s say Montenegro, which joined last year, is attacked. Why should my son go to Montenegro to defend it from attack?” (https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/why-die-for-montenegro-trump-asks/)

3) Lost in the shuffle of everything else is the story of a 29-year-old Russian woman with ties to the NRA who was arrested in the U.S. on Monday for conspiring to act as an agent of the Russian government. This piece is a first person story from a journalist who interacted with her in the final weeks before Trump’s election in 2016. (http://www.france24.com/en/20180717-lunch-alleged-russian-spy-maria-butina-nra-torshin-trump-2016-election?ref=tw)

STRAY OBSERVATIONS

– After Trump’s comments about Montenegro, I can’t help but think that some portion of the unrecorded one-on-one with Putin in Helsinki was about the Balkans. I can’t imagine Trump cares much about that part of the world, but it’s an area of EU and NATO expansion and one that has strong historical and strategic value for Russia. Greece recently kicked out some Russians who were trying to meddle in its politics and Montenegro foiled a Russian-linked attempt at a coup last year. Also, Macedonia has been promised NATO membership if it can figure out the name change issue with Greece and they have also sounded the alarm about Russian attempts to destabilize its politics. So, keep your eyes on the Balkans.

– This Vanity Fair piece is quite astounding, Apparently John Kelly, Trump’s disgruntled chief of staff, personally lobbied Congressional Republicans to publicly rebuke Trump after his press conference with Putin. I think that should speak volumes about how screwed up things are in the White House right now.

– After the summit ended on Monday, Finnish President Sauli Niinistö was seen having a beer with senior aides just around the corner from the presidential palace at a normal neighborhood spot. I think we all badly needed a drink after that meeting.

That’s all for now!

Best,
Reid

President Donald Trump has been in Europe less than a week and so far he’s left a trail of confused officials, angry protesters, and frayed alliances. After a two day summit in Brussels and another trip to the U.K., he’s set to arrive in Finland tomorrow and the country has mixed feelings about it.

I had a piece out yesterday in POLITICO Europe looking at the vibe in Helsinki as it prepares to welcome Trump and Putin to town on Monday. Of course, the country is no stranger to hosting summits of this stature, but this one certainly feels different. Neither president is particularly popular (a recent poll showed that 83 percent of Finns had a negative view of Trump and 76 percent had a negative view of Putin) and both men have brought a massive amount of instability to Europe in the last few years. You can read the whole article here (https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-helsinki-summit/)

Good morning/good afternoon/good evening to everyone and welcome to a special newsletter ahead of the Trump and Putin’s meeting. As always, send me any feedback or tips by email or tweet (@ReidStan). Also, don’t forget to share this newsletter with anyone you think might be interested. New people can subscribe by clicking this link and entering their email here –> (tinyletter.com/ReidStandish).

It’s a warm sunny day here in Helsinki and preparations have been underway around the clock to welcome the American and Russian presidents. There’s a mix of excitement and anxiety around the city and the heightened security measures can already be seen on the streets. As the meeting finally draws near, the main story is what will actually be discussed between Trump and Putin. We know that each will meet individually with Finnish President Sauli Niinistö before having a one-on-one meeting together and then a working lunch with ministers and senior staff. Beyond that, the talks are said to be “unstructured” and could deal with a variety of topics.

Perhaps the biggest thing that the Kremlin is after is some form of sanctions relief, but a 2017 law bars Trump from easing many sanctions without approval from the U.S. Congress. Arms control remains another potential area for discussion. Neither side has started discussions on what to do when New START, a treaty between the two countries to cut their nuclear arsenals to 1,550 deployed warheads, that expires in 2021. Putin and Trump could agree to trigger a provision and extend the treaty by five more years. But Trump rejected Putin’s offer to extend the agreement in a February 2017 phone call and John Bolton, Trump’s national security adviser, remains an outspoken critic of the treaty. Asking for Russian assistance in Syria to limit Iran’s presence on the ground will also be discussed. Trump has expressed his desire to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria and Putin recently welcomed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, and a senior Iranian official to Moscow for meetings.

But it’s hard to know what — if anything — concrete will come from the Helsinki meeting. Both presidents are keen to find a way to keep talking and will likely look for some kind of deliverable to keep the door open. The U.S.-Russia relationship has always been one of booms and busts and it has rarely been able to work for very long, so if Putin and Trump can find fresh solutions to some of these problems, that’s great. But I wouldn’t expect them to solve the world’s most difficult issues in a flashy meeting that lasts less than one working day. Instead, I’m expecting plenty of bluster and theatrics.

SUMMIT READING

1) A U.S. grand jury indicted 12 Russian military intelligence officers yesterday for interfering in the U.S. election, which makes things extra interesting ahead of the meeting on Monday. Trump continues to call Mueller’s investigation into his campaign’s ties to Russia a “witch hunt” and has seemingly taken Putin’s denials about Russian interference at face value. This indictment forces Trump’s hand to a degree ahead of the Helsinki meeting to press the issue with Putin. These two articles do a good job of explaining the stakes. (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/07/muellers-blockbuster-indictment/565202/) (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/23/us/politics/mueller-investigation-charges.html)

2) Speaking of election interference, I thought I’d re-up a piece I did back in December looking at how little has been done to prepare for another campaign to meddle in American elections. (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/12/russia-disinformation-election-trump-putin-hack-cyber-europe/549260/)

3) The New York Times did a fun photo essay looking at the history of meetings and summits between American and Soviet/Russian leaders over the years. Take a look. My favorite is the one of Brezhnev wearing a wolf fur coat that Ford gave him (seen above). (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/14/world/europe/summits-kremlin-us-presidents.html)

4) As noted earlier in this newsletter, Syria is likely to be a central issue during the talks in Helsinki. This piece does a good job of explaining how difficult finding a lasting and workable solution will be: “In some alternate universe, it may make sense for the president of the United States to meet with his Russian counterpart to negotiate an end to the fighting in Syria. It would be a universe in which the American president weren’t constantly denigrating European allies, and the Russian president weren’t habitually lying about his country’s various predations.” (https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-08/trump-can-t-play-putin-s-game-in-syria)

5) Also, in case you missed it, here is my piece for The Atlantic from late June looking at what hosting this meeting means for Finland and how it’s eager to show the world that it’s no longer the Finland of the Cold War. (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/finland-helsinki-russia-trump-united-states-summit/564074/)

STRAY OBSERVATIONS

– There’s going to be a good sized protest (technically several different ones) tomorrow in downtown Helsinki against Trump and Putin’s domestic agendas and the idea that they could strike some sort of grand bargain  that leaves human rights and liberal norms by the wayside. I’ve been to/covered a fair amount of protests in America and elsewhere, and it’s always enjoyable to see all the clever signs and banners that demonstrators come up with. So, I’m hoping Finns have some top quality slogans on display.

– The Finnish foreign ministry decided to put a sauna in the media center for journalists to use. I hope I have time to take löyly in it.

– I’ve probably watched this clip of a woman calling Piers Morgan an idiot on live television at least 50 times. (https://www.thecut.com/2018/07/woman-yells-im-a-communist-you-idiot-at-piers-morgan.html)

That’s all for now! Enjoy your weekend!

Best,
Reid

So, Helsinki is the winner and will be hosting the star-crossed summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The summit, which is slated for July 16th, is major news and has sent the Finnish government into overdrive, as people are moving fast to put together an international meeting in only a few weeks.

I have a new piece out in The Atlantic today about the summit and significance of Finland hosting Moscow and Washington again. Helsinki was a key meeting point between West and East during the Cold War, hosting summits in 1975, 1990 and again in 1997. Those summits brought together leaders with clear goals in mind and helped bring stability to Europe. But unlike those previous meetings, this upcoming one is bringing together two men that have thrown the continent into disarray. You can read the entire piece here: (https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/06/finland-helsinki-russia-trump-united-states-summit/564074/ )

Good morning/good afternoon/good evening to everyone and welcome back! I thought I’d do a special version devoted to the upcoming summit, so things will be slightly different than usual. As always, send me any feedback or tips by email or tweet (@ReidStan). Also, don’t forget to share this newsletter with anyone you think might be interested. New people can subscribe by clicking this link and entering their email here –> (tinyletter.com/ReidStandish).

There’s lots to unpack with this summit. Beyond the big story about Putin and Trump’s meeting, there’s the subplot of what this means for Finland. Just hosting is a diplomatic win for Helsinki and it helps Finnish President Sauli Niinistö earn some extra points at home and solidify his image as the country’s elder statesman. Niinistö will also get a bilateral meeting with Trump and said yesterday at a press conference that he will likely do the same with Putin. To quote Trump, Niinistö is doing diplomacy “bigly.”

But the Finns are also not so keen to come across as the neutral middle ground like they were back in the Cold War. Neutrality and being a place between East and West are sore spots for modern Finland and there’s already been some consternation about Western media reports calling Finland “neutral” for hosting this summit: a policy they abandoned after the collapse of the Soviet Union. So, it will be interesting to see how the Finns tell their story and show that they are now firmly in the Western camp as they once again become the backdrop for a major summit.

The meeting between Putin and Trump will be the wild card here. No one really knows what to expect and the big concern is that Trump will be all too accommodating in his dealings with Putin. The NATO summit in Brussels before the Helsinki summit will likely be tense and there’s a lot of anxiety across Europe at the moment about this meeting. Of course, dialogue is usually a good thing and there’s logic in meeting with Putin. There’s just very little confidence in Trump.

SUMMIT READING

1) Will Trump get played by Putin? It’s a legitimate question to ask, especially given Trump’s public fawning over the Russian president and how Trump handled Kim Jong-un in Singapore. This New Yorker article gives a good lay of the land. (https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/will-trump-get-played-by-putin)

2) I liked this Politico article comparing the negotiating styles of both Trump and Putin. Unsurprisingly, Putin has a reputation for being meticulous and Trump publicly brags about not preparing. (https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/23/trump-putin-summit-russia-665904)

3) To reiterate a point that needs reiterating, there’s a lot of worry that Trump will concede something he shouldn’t to Putin. Trump has been pushing hard to have this meeting and his praise of the Russian leader have defied pundits, foreign leaders, and his own staff alike. Ahead of the summit, this article from Susan Glasser is worth revisiting. (https://www.newyorker.com/news/letter-from-trumps-washington/theres-no-stopping-him-trump-insists-on-a-russia-summit)

STRAY OBSERVATIONS

– I had fun reading about Finnish Cold War history while writing the piece for The Atlantic. I liked this anecdote from a news report from the 1990 meeting in Helsinki between Bush and Gorbachev: Stealing a leaf from Gorbachev’s travel book, Bush stopped his limousine, under a gray, chilly sky, and plunged into a crowd near an open air food and vegetable market. As he climbed back into his limousine after shaking hands on the streets of Helsinki, Bush exclaimed over the automobile’s loudspeaker: “Thanks very much. Long live Finland!”

– I also came across an interesting line in an obituary about Urho Kekkonen, Finland’s iconic Cold War president who guided the country between East and West and solidified its neutral status at the time. “He said that Finland could not proceed haphazardly on the assumption that everyone knew its foreign policy was one of neutrality and friendship with the Soviet Union. Finns, he said, could never take their foreign policy for granted but must rededicate themselves to it every day.” Seems like there’s some wisdom in there that Finnish foreign policy makers could use today as they push to update the world that Finland’s neutrality expired nearly 30 years ago.

That’s all for now! It’s going to be a very busy July.

Best,
Reid

All the buzz today is the news that Helsinki is the frontrunner for a potential summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Politico reported yesterday that the Finnish capital is the leading contender for the still planned summit between the American and Russian leaders. Reuters followed it up with a report citing a senior White House official saying that Helsinki is being considered.

Despite the momentum, nothing appears finalized yet. Trump’s National Security Advisor John Bolton is in Moscow today and met with Lavrov and Putin to lay the groundwork for the summit. The Finnish government has been mostly silent about playing host. The president’s press office put out a very short statement yesterday saying that “Finland is always ready to offer its good services if asked.” That wording stood out to me when I read it: “If asked.” Does that mean that the Finns have not yet been asked? Does it mean that they’ve only been asked informally and not in an official capacity? Or is it simply a small oversight that I am reading too much into? I asked the Finnish President’s Office for clarification, but they declined to comment.

The other potential site for the summit is Vienna. An Austrian newspaper said earlier this week that teams from the United States and Russia were already in Vienna preparing for a July 15 meeting. In terms of scheduling, Trump is set to be in Brussels July 11-12 for a NATO summit before traveling to the U.K. for events on July 13. The World Cup final is set for July 15 and Putin is supposed to attend the game. July 14 seems like an obvious date for a meeting between Putin and Trump. Both Finland and Austria are close and make sense as destinations.

Good morning/good afternoon/good evening to everyone. Welcome back and hope everyone is having a good summer. Send any feedback or tips by email or tweet at me (@ReidStan). Please share this newsletter with anyone you think might be interested. New people can subscribe by clicking this link and entering their email here –> (tinyletter.com/ReidStandish) or shoot me an email with their address and I can add them.

WHAT I’M READING

1) Hurricane Trump will make landfall in Europe in mid-July and is set to hit Brussels for the NATO summit first. Things have been fraught among Western allies since Trump took over and even more so after the G-7 summit in June that ended with Trump calling Canadian P.M. Justin Trudeau “weak” and allegedly throwing a Starburst candy at German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The New York Times has a curtain raiser looking at the upcoming gathering and how it’s perceived in Europe. (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/26/world/europe/trump-nato-summit-g-7.html)

2) Beijing’s trillion dollar Belt and Road Initiative that consists of new infrastructure projects spanning across Eurasia to connect Europe to China has had some successes, but also plenty of hiccups. Reuters has a good report looking at the troubles and bottlenecks that the venture is facing in Poland, where ambitious targets are coming up against the difficult realities of re-writing the rules of global trade. (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-europe-silkroad-insight/in-europes-east-a-border-town-strains-under-chinas-silk-road-train-boom-idUSKBN1JM34M )

3) With midterm elections approaching, the U.S. government and major tech companies are trying to learn the lessons about foreign election meddling. But it’s not exactly going great. This report here looks at a May meeting between a group of tech companies and intelligence officials that ended with both sides feeling frustrated in the fight to deal with the spread of disinformation on social media platforms. (https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/25/technology/tech-meeting-midterm-elections.html)

STRAY OBSERVATIONS

– Gordon Sander, a U.S. journalist that’s covered Finland for several decades, has a new book out. It’s called “Off the Map: A Personal History of Finland” and I’d recommend it as a fun read that gives a great crash course on all facets of Finland. I particularly enjoyed reading about Gordon’s early days in Finland in the height of the Cold War, complete with hostage crises and the seedier side of the country that few would recognize today. I’m not sure where the book will be available, but if you are interested in getting a copy, send an email to Gordon to find out more: gorsander@aol.com

-New legislation is coming into effect on Sunday that will deregulate Finland’s taxi industry and open the door to new players like Uber that could shake things up. NewsNowFinland has a good piece getting into things and giving a good lay of the land (http://newsnowfinland.fi/economy-business/taxi-drivers-face-uncertain-future-with-july-deregulation). Personally, I’m all for more competition, but it sounds like there are still some snags on this new legislation that could have some unseemly knock-on effects.

– With Arctic ice melting faster than expected, the far north is getting lots of attention and U.S. Secretary of Defense James Mattis is worried that America is getting left behind, especially as Russia and China devote more resources. In comments yesterday, Mattis said that the United States needs to “up its game” and that the warming of the Arctic had spurred a new rush for resources in the region that the United States has been reluctant to join. I know that I’ve received feedback from some people who have said that competition in the Arctic is minimal and that it shouldn’t be overblown. And yes, there’s certainly plenty of nuance here and the Arctic isn’t the next Wild West or where the next conflict with Russia will be. But comments like Mattis’ should remind you that it’s an area of competition and one where the level of competition is increasing. (https://www.rferl.org/a/us-needs-up-game-arctic-amid-russian-chinese-development-ambitions-mattis-pentagon-chief-/29320591.html)

– Speaking of the Arctic, here is a photo from Nordkapp, Norway. I was there a few weeks ago and it was beautiful.

That’s all for now.

Best,
Reid